Abstract: economists have predicted that the unemployment rate in the United States will reach the highest level after the great depression, and even if economic activity begins to recover, the economic recovery in the United States will be a long process. The fiscal stimulus measures and the central bank's loose environment will provide long-term support for precious metals, and silver futures are still optimistic.
Economists have predicted that the U.S. unemployment rate will reach the highest level after the great depression, and even if economic activity begins to recover, the economic recovery will be a long process. The fiscal stimulus measures and the central bank's loose environment will provide long-term support for precious metals, and silver futures are still optimistic.
Economists predict that the unemployment rate in the United States will reach a new high
According to the median forecast of a monthly survey of 69 economists conducted by Bloomberg, after a slight decline in the first quarter, the annual decline of US gross domestic product (GDP) will reach 25% from April to June this year, and the unemployment rate will reach 12.6%, the highest level since the 1940s, the highest level after the great depression.
James Knightley, chief international economist at ing, said that even if the economy reopened in mid May, more than 20 million Americans would lose their jobs and the economy could shrink by about 13% from peak to trough, three times as much as during the last financial crisis.
Moreover, the economic recovery will not be so fast, and it may be a long process. Knightley said that the economic re opening needs to be carried out step by step, and it will take many months to return to the "old style". The legacy of financial losses and defaults, he said, means US GDP is not expected to return to its peak at the end of 2019 until mid-2022 at the earliest.
Future market of silver futures
Gold has missed the $1600 / oz mark, leaving its September 24 high of $1530.96 for near-term support. Before January 2, this level has been the highest point of gold price, and before it is finally broken through, it is equivalent to an upward resistance to some extent.
The outlook for precious metals is still promising, and it is expected to continue to rise next week. Daniel pavionis, a senior commodities broker at rjo futures, said the stock market also appeared to be recovering, opening the door to higher precious metal prices. For about two weeks in March, both happened at the same time.
Pavionis noted that the number of us initial jobless claims announced on Thursday also remained high, with the Federal Reserve taking more steps to boost the economy and market, including buying up to $500 billion in short-term debt from states, counties and cities. This is exactly the environment in which metals go up, he said.
Meanwhile, Colin cieszynski, chief market strategist of SIA wealth management, and Charlie nedoss, senior market strategist of LaSalle futures group, also said they were bullish based on the actions of the central bank. 6000, but the overall unemployment rate is expected to remain relatively stable at 3.5%.
The analysis points out that if trump launches a new round of stimulus and adds the Fed's "heavy stimulus shell", the dollar will depreciate due to unprecedented easing, and precious metals such as gold and silver will further expand the momentum.