Abstract:This week, gold can be described as ups and downs. Although it still closed up in the end, it still called a one-week high and fell by $40. The focus of investors next week will remain on the US Congress’s fiscal stimulus and Sino-US high-level talks. In addition, in terms of data, there will also be a number of heavy data such as US PPI and CPI, which is expected to have a certain impact on the trend of gold. Investment Those who need to pay close attention.

August 8 News This week, gold can be described as ups and downs. Although it still closed up in the end, it still called a one-week high and fell by $40. The focus of investors next week will remain on the US Congress’s fiscal stimulus and Sino-US high-level talks. In addition, in terms of data, there will also be a number of heavy data such as US PPI and CPI, which is expected to have a certain impact on the trend of gold. Investment Those who need to pay close attention.

The US Congressional fiscal stimulus negotiations continue next week. Can differences be resolved?

Investors should pay close attention to the fiscal stimulus negotiations in the US Congress next week. The passage of another major economic stimulus plan may mean printing more banknotes, a weaker U.S. dollar, and higher gold prices.

However, negotiations to stimulate the economy have not made any progress. U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that the White House and Democratic leaders "still have great differences on major issues."

US President Trump said that if the United States fails to reach an agreement, he may participate in it and sign an executive order to expand unemployment benefits and suspend payroll taxes.

Another major factor driving the rise in gold prices next week will be the growing tension between the United States and China, especially after Trump signed two executive orders prohibiting US residents from trading with China’s TikTok and WeChat apps. The order will take effect within 45 days.

There will be a number of heavy data next week, investors need to pay close attention

Next week will be another busy data week. Data to watch closely include the US PPI on Tuesday, the US CPI on Wednesday, the number of initial jobless claims in the US on Thursday, and the US retail sales and industrial production data on Friday.

The data released next week are all July data, which means that these data will continue to show that the US economy is recovering. However, James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, said that once the August figures begin to peak, cracks may begin to appear.

He wrote: "The July data will be released next week. Industrial production and retail sales will continue to recover from the lockdown measures. The situation should be quite optimistic. The combination of weakening confidence, a tougher job market, and declining household income means that The outlook for economic activity data in August and September is not optimistic."

Institutional outlook: gold prices may usher in a callback next week, but it will also usher in more buying

The overall sentiment of the gold market is still very bullish, but the call for bears is getting higher and higher, because next week gold may face a belated correction.

Gold has reached multiple record highs above $2,000/ounce this week. The most recent time was Friday (August 7). Comex December gold futures rose to $2089.20/ounce, but the price of gold fell sharply in the US market.

Analysts said that although the overall trend is on the rise, it does not rule out the possibility of adjustment. In fact, for the gold market, adjustment is a very healthy signal because it provides time for consolidation and new buying opportunities.

"Although the fundamental factors driving gold are still positive, technically speaking, gold has been rising despite declining trading volume, and the RSI indicator shows that it has been extremely overbought," Chief Market Officer of Singapore Wealth Management (SIA Wealth Management) Strategist Colin Cieszynski said.

However, some analysts pointed out that the price of gold will not fall too much next week, because many investors are on the scene and are ready to jump into the rebounding market.

"A lot of people buy while waiting for the price of gold to correct," said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. "The fall in gold prices will not change the fact that the Fed will introduce another stimulus measure to allow gold prices to rise."

Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options LLC, said that the best way to judge whether the market is strong is to sell.

"In these pullbacks, we see buying from the underground... we are hitting higher lows, which is a sign that the rally is accelerating. A lot of people just sit and wait," Grady said. "The monetary policy in the next few years will keep interest rates close to zero. The United States and the world will launch large-scale stimulus plans, which will cause the dollar to depreciate. It is this monetary policy that drives the rise of gold."